Saturday, June 20, 2009

Is the job market really turning around?

According to some recent headlines, conditions are finally starting to improve for the unemployed.

Some indicators are showing positive signs in the job market for the first time since the credit crisis caused job losses to soar last fall. But for the growing number of unemployed workers in the U.S., macroeconomic statistics aren't worth much.

After peaking in January, the pace of job losses has slowed dramatically, according to the Labor Department. Employers cut 345,000 jobs from their payrolls in May -- 32% fewer than the previous month. And the number of Americans filing for continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell last week for the first time since early January.

But for those unemployed workers pounding the pavement, jobs are still hard to come by.

That's because even though job cuts have slowed, employers have not started hiring just yet. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of new hires remains near an all-time low.

"In general, companies have been in a wait-and-see posture," explained Dr. Jane Goldner, a human resources expert and author of "Driven To Success: A 10-Point Checkup for Achieving High Performance in Business." "There's some level of confidence coming back," but in terms of hiring, "I don't think we're there yet," she said.

Many unemployed workers agree.

Ann Fry made a good living as professional speaker and executive coach in New York until last fall. Now the companies that hired her in the past have cut back and individual clients signed off.

"I completely rely on whether conferences are happening and whether they are hiring speakers," she explained. "What I notice is that companies are reluctant to pay for 'extras' like corporate training and coaching," she said. "Also, the professional associations I speak for nationally are cutting their budgets way back."

With fewer clients and fewer gigs this year, Fry, 63, has had to tap into her savings in recent months to make ends meet. As a self-employed professional, there is no safety net such as unemployment insurance to fall back on, but she's hopeful that business will pick up again.

"I think we're already seeing some signs of improvement," Fry says of the economic environment. "Do I see it turning around yet?" she asked of her own employment status, "no, not yet."

"For the job seeker it's probably not necessarily obvious right now that things are improving," said Jennifer Schramm, the manager of workplace trends and forecasting for The Society for Human Resource Management.

Although anecdotal evidence suggest that hiring expectations will improve in the second half of the year, "we have to wait a few months to see if this is a trend," she said.

Once companies stop decreasing headcount, it could still take time before hiring plans take hold, and even longer for there to be a noticeable change in workers' attitudes.

Chuck Jentlie has been through this before. His career as a recruiter for the tech industry was rocked by the dot-com bust earlier in the decade. Since then the 52-year-old went back to college at Arizona State University to get a degree in architecture.

But once a growing industry, architectural services has steadily lost jobs since the beginning of the year. Now a large percentage of architects are out of work, including recent graduate Jentlie.

"None of us can find a job," he said of his classmates.

Although the industry as a whole could bounce back quickly once the economy improves, "a lot of the reports seem like wishful thinking," Jentlie said.

"I'm definitely not seeing [employers] saying 'yeah we're looking for workers,'" he said. "Realistically I think we're probably looking at another year."

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Stocks dip on inflation woes

Stocks cut losses, but still ended lower Wednesday, as spiking Treasury yields and rising commodity prices added to worries that inflation could limit any recovery effort.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 24 points, or 0.3%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost almost 3 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 7 points, or 0.4%.

Treasury prices slumped, boosting the corresponding yields. The benchmark 10-year note fell 22/32 and its yield rose to 3.94% from 3.86% Tuesday. The yield had risen as high as 4%.

Although the momentum is still with the bulls, new worries have surfaced over the last few days, said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.

"The concern has been that the bond market is worried about inflation and the rise in commodity prices is adding to that," Wilson said. "There's a little bit of a worry that this will dampen what is hopefully the start of a recovery."

The concerns about pricing pressure overshadowed any relief Wednesday about Chrysler's completed deal with Fiat and Home Depot's improved forecast.

U.S. light crude oil prices climbed as high as $71.79 a barrel, rising along with the price of gold and other commodities.

Commodity prices have been rallying lately, due to the weak dollar and bets that the economic recovery will drive demand for so-called hard assets. But the rise in commodity prices also added to worries over inflation.

Concerns that rising borrowing costs could derail a tentative economic recovery have dragged on sentiment over the last few sessions.

Chrysler: Italian automaker Fiat has closed a deal to buy the good assets of the bankrupt automaker, after the Supreme Court cleared the way for the deal late Tuesday.

Fiat will take a 20% stake in the company to start with, but that holding can increase to 35% if the company reaches certain goals. The new company -- called the Chrysler Group -- will be majority owned by the United Auto Workers union. The U.S. and Canadian governments will also own stakes.

Chrysler is expected to start operating immediately.
0:00 /2:47Mortgage rates tick back up

Banks: On Tuesday, the government said 10 of the biggest banks were well-enough capitalized to pay back a collective $68 billion in loans received last fall at the height of the financial crisis.

The list included American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500).

The Obama administration dropped its plan to limit salaries at firms that have taken bailout money, and will instead propose legislation that gives shareholders a bigger say in executive pay. Washington attorney Kenneth Feinberg was named the new "pay czar" later Wednesday.

Retail: Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) said it now expects full-year earnings in a range of flat to down 7%, versus its earlier guidance for a decline of 7%. Shares were little changed.

Economy: The Fed released its periodic "beige book" reading of the economy in its 12 districts. The report showed the economy remained weak or got weaker between mid-April and early May, although five of the districts said there are signs the pace of the recession is slowing.

Another report showed the U.S. fiscal year deficit is now near $1 trillion after a $189.7 billion shortfall in May.

The April trade balance widened to $29.2 billion from a revised $28.5 billion in March, the Census Bureau reported. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would widen to $28.7 billion.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European stocks ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose $1.32 to settle at $71.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, building on earlier gains after the government's weekly inventory report showed a surprise plunge in crude supplies.

COMEX gold for August delivery settled at $954.70 an ounce, unchanged from Tuesday.
 

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