Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Can you still get a 5% mortgage?

There's still time to get a 5% mortgage -- but the window is closing.

On April 1, the government will stop buying mortgage-related debt, which will send interest rates slowly higher

Since November 2008 the Federal Reserve has snapped up $1.25 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities -- essentially, people's mortgages bundled together and sold to investors.

The program has kept interest rates artificially low over the past year, with the price of a 30-year fixed-rate loan ranging between 4.93% and 5.09%, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

That's about 0.4 percentage points lower than these loans would have been without the government's intervention, according to Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But when the Fed stops buying and cedes the playing field to private investors, they will almost surely demand better return for their risk.

"Rates are going to be higher than they are now," said Brinkmann.

How much higher is the question.

"It's really hard to tell right now," said Amy Crews Cutts, Freddie Mac's deputy chief economist. "The Fed said it will taper off [purchases] gradually. Each week they buy less than the week before."
Danger! Falling home prices

So far, though, the tapering has failed to spawn higher rates. Last week, the 30-year was just 4.96%.

Still, all of the experts agree that mortgage rates will climb. The good news is that none of them think the increase will be very large.

Their projections are for a gradual run up to between 5.5% and 6% by December. Brinkman's projection is a rise to 5.8%; Cutts is to 5.75%.

That will add only about $70 to the monthly payment on a $150,000 note. That's still very reasonable and should not discourage many consumers.

Homebuyers may even find themselves paying less every month as housing markets continue to experience price declines.

Industry experts are projecting further home price drops of 5% to 10%. That would wipe out every bit, and more, of the monthly payment increases higher mortgage rates would bring.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Geithner promises mortgage fix

A long-awaited renovation of mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could start to take shape this year, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Congress Tuesday.

The Obama administration hopes to propose legislation to fix the nation's housing finance system within months, Geithner told the House Financial Services Committee. The government currently finances almost all home mortgages, thanks to its 2008 takeover of Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500).

A long-awaited renovation of mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could start to take shape this year, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Congress Tuesday.

The Obama administration hopes to propose legislation to fix the nation's housing finance system within months, Geithner told the House Financial Services Committee. The government currently finances almost all home mortgages, thanks to its 2008 takeover of Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500).

Will Greece turn from euros to gyros?

Athens is abuzz with a rumor: Greece might leave the euro zone and adopt a new currency -- a Greek euro, so to speak, something of a cross between a drachma and a euro to be used only internally. Some hungry economists have jokingly given the new money a nickname: the "Gyro."

If only the solution to Greece's problems could be rolled up as neatly as a gyro sandwich. A bailout from the European Union or its partner countries is growing increasingly unlikely -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel just put a kibosh on discussing the topic at the upcoming EU Summit. While the International Monetary Fund sits in the wings ready to swoop in, it is unlikely the EU would allow its aid, and stigma, to affect the other Euro nations.

As a member of a currency union, Greece is "stuck in a Euro-zone straightjacket," writes economist Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute. Its options to dispose of its debt are limited: a default is not politically viable, a restructuring is unworkable, and currency devaluation to make the mess go away -- a tactic Argentina used in 2001 -- is impossible. To remain in the EU, Greece must accept its rules in good times, and in bad.

If Greece thinks it's trapped in a bad marriage, it could choose to leave the eurozone, but that would be a shocking development, one that prime minister George Papandreou insists is not on the table.
Fears of a Greek bank run

Yet the country may have no choice -- Greece might even be asked to go. As the crisis deepens, Greece's "leaving the Euro area, though still a low probability scenario, can no longer be ruled out," says Uri Dadush, the director of Carnegie International Economics Program. "It's a painful route, but a lot less painful than others."

Greeks are starting to wonder what a euro-less future might look like. One possible roadmap: copying California's 2009 debt solution of issuing warrants later redeemable for dollars.

The proposal by London School of Economics' Charles Goodhart and Oxford Said Business School's Dimitrios Tsomocos, would introduce a new way to pay debts inside Greece (or any of the other ailing "Club Med" countries -- Spain, Portugal, and possibly Italy), while leaving the euro in place for international transactions.
0:00 /:59EU to help debt-stricken Greece

Countries would print scrip that would act and look like a new currency domestically but not be legal tender overseas. There would be an exchange rate that would allow citizens to convert scrip to euros when necessary, but also allow the countries to devalue their economies while not affecting the euro's strength in other eurozone countries.
Or, perhaps, a two-euro European Union

Other economists like Michael Arghyrou of the Cardill Business School and John Tsoukalas, a lecturer at the Nottingham School of Economics, have proposed a grander version of this idea, where a two-euro European Union would be formed. One euro will serve the union's weaker economies like Greece and Portugal, and another would circulate in the rest. In their plan, both currencies would be overseen by the European Central Bank. "We can't deny that at the moment in Europe we have a two-speed European economy," explains Arghyrou. "This is not such a big mental leap."

Arghyrou believes the plan would calm international markets because it would provide a credible outcome to the guessing game that's happening now. But the political debate likely to follow such an arrangement will be anything but serene. Whatever countries get the cheaper Euro aren't much going to like the stigma of using the weaker currency, Club Med or not.

Countries assigned to a junior currency might protest, but can their sovereign pride get in the way of hard facts? "The euro as it is now is not sustainable," says Arghyrou. "We'll be talking about 27 currencies ten years from now, not two, if the present trend continues."

"The euro was set up with a handicap," says Italian economist Mario Nuti. "It's a currency without a federal state, without a fiscal authority and without a budget." In the end, the fact that the EU is a currency union without a political foundation may turn out to be its death knell.

How this plays out for the European Union rests in Greece's hands. The task ahead is Herculean: The government must cut budget expenses by about 25%. "That's a heavy lift. If they do, it would be a miracle," says Charles Calomiris of Columbia University's business school. "But then again they said the same thing about the 2004 Olympics. No one thought Greece would pull it off, but it did." One could say it takes a Greek to figure out how to make and eat a gyro, all without spilling a drop. To top of page

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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Price tag of TARP bailout: $109 billion

The government's unprecedented $700 billion economic bailout will actually cost taxpayers just 16% of that total, according to a Congressional Budget Office report released Wednesday.

The Treasury's losses on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) will total $109 billion over the program's lifetime, CBO latest estimates show. That's up $10 billion from the agency's last projection, released in January.

CBO, which is charged with reviewing congressional budgets, has released a series of TARP cost calculations in the 17 months since the bailout began, each time updating its numbers with the latest data. At one point CBO expected the cost to be as high as $356 billion, but faster-than-expected bank repayments and other cost adjustments have drastically reduced the expected price tag.

TARP's two big moneysuckers are AIG and the auto industry.

AIG got TARP money in two forms: the government bought $40 billion in preferred stock and created a $30 billion line of credit for the company. CBO previously estimated the AIG bailout would cost the government $9 billion, but AIG hasn't paid the Treasury the quarterly dividends it owes. AIG's weak financial position prompted CBO to increase its loss projection to $36 billion -- more than half of the AIG bailout cost.

Other major losses -- a total of $34 billion -- will come from TARP assistance to the automotive industry, CBO said. The government committed $85 billion to bailing out the automakers.
0:00 /6:10Warren: TARP puts us at greater risk

On the flip slide, the highly unpopular capital infusion for banks will actually net the government $7 billion, CBO expects -- even including a $2 billion loss from CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500), which declared bankruptcy, and Pacific Coast National Bancorp, which was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

CBO isn't the only agency attempting to tally up TARP's cost. The latest estimates from the Office of Management and Budget, released in early February, predict TARP will cost $18 billion more than CBO's estimates. The numbers from the two agencies differ because of different assumptions about the cost of some items and a varied timeframe for some of the data they evaluated.
Foreclosure help forecast

As for President Obama's mortgage modification program, the CBO estimates that the Treasury Department will use no more than $20 billion of TARP funds, less than half of the $50 billion originally allocated. That's because the CBO expects many fewer people will participate in the program than the government originally expected, a view held by many housing industry observers.

When Obama announced the program in February 2009, he said up to 4 million people could save their homes through the loan modification program, which lowers eligible borrowers' monthly payments to no more than 31% of their pre-tax income. But more recently, officials have backtracked and said up to 4 million people could qualify for trial modifications, during which loan servicers assess their borrowers' eligibility and ability to pay.

Through February, around 170,000 distressed homeowners have received long-term modifications under the program.

Another $1.5 billion in TARP funds will be used to provide grants to state housing agencies in California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Michigan. These agencies are tasked with coming up with programs to assist the unemployed, the underwater who owe more than their homes are worth, and the second-lien holders.

Get your kids to fund their nest eggs

Naturally, affording retirement isn't an issue that weighs heavily on the minds of young people just starting off in the workforce. So it's no surprise that only 28% of workers under age 25 contribute to employer-sponsored retirement plans, as reported by tax information service CCH.

But as a parent, you don't want your child to end up behind. And with fewer workers being offered corporate pension plans, individual savings are increasingly important in determining quality of life in retirement. As for convincing your kid of this ...

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But as a parent, you don't want your child to end up behind. And with fewer workers being offered corporate pension plans, individual savings are increasingly important in determining quality of life in retirement. As for convincing your kid of this ...

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Friday, March 12, 2010

Mortgage help: 170,000 get permanent aid

More than 170,000 troubled homeowners are breathing a lasting sigh of relief now that they've received permanent modifications under the Obama administration's foreclosure prevention program.

Some 15.5% of those who entered the program have gotten long-term adjustments through February, up from 11.5% a month earlier, according to a report from Treasury officials issued Friday.

An additional 91,800 permanent modifications have been approved by servicers and are pending borrower acceptance. And more than 88,600 people have been denied lasting help because they did not meet the program's criteria, while another 1,499 homeowners have had their permanent modification terminated.

More than 835,000 people are currently in trial modifications, a review period during which banks check whether borrowers can make the reduced payments and gather the necessary paperwork to verify income and hardship. The administration's foreclosure prevention program reduces eligible borrowers' monthly payments to 31% of pre-tax income. Participants typically have their loans reduced by $519, or 36%.

The number of people receiving permanent help has been steadily rising as the administration increases the pressure on mortgage servicers to make decisions on those in the trial phase.
0:00 /3:10Homeowners walking away

However, some experts say that more needs to be done to help troubled borrowers, particularly those without jobs or who owe more than their homes are worth.

Even those who make it into a trial modification are not assured of getting permanent assistance. A growing number of people are getting rejection notices as they hit the end of their trial period.

"While the pace of conversion to a permanent modification has stepped up since the program started, it is slow compared to the large number of loans that are still in trial modification," according to Celia Chen, who studies the housing market. "A large number of these homes are expected eventually to be put up for sale, adding to the supply glut and causing prices to decline once again.

When the modification was first announced in February 2009, the administration said it would help up to 4 million people avoid foreclosure. More recently, however, it has changed that goal, now saying that up to 4 million people could qualify for trial modifications.

The shift doesn't sit well with some housing advocates.

"Our measurement of success cannot be based on how many people gain assistance for only a few months, but it must be based on how many people gain permanent and sustainable modifications," said New York State Banking Superintendent Richard Neiman, who serves on the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group.
Additional efforts

The administration is rolling out new programs to try to keep the housing market on a fairly even keel. Last month, President Obama announced a $1.5 billion initiative to help the unemployed and underwater who owe more than their home's value in five hard-hit states.

And officials will soon implement a foreclosure alternative designed for people who don't qualify for modifications. The administration will pay borrowers, servicers and investors incentives to complete short-sales, in which the bank agrees to sell the home for less than the mortgage amount.

Friday's figures comes a day after an industry report showed the national foreclosure rate fell 2% in February from a month earlier. Yet, RealtyTrac warned that the true number of distressed borrowers may be hidden by the foreclosure prevention efforts.

Many experts are expecting a surge in foreclosures during 2010 as borrowers' attempts to modify their loans fail.

Yellen in line for Fed No. 2

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen is a leading contender to be the next vice chairman of the central bank, according to White House press secretary Robert Gibbs.

Gibbs, speaking to the press Friday, also said that Sarah Raskin, the Maryland Commissioner of Financial Regulation, and Peter Diamond, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, are under "strong consideration" for two long-standing vacancies on the central bank's seven-member board of governors.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen is a leading contender to be the next vice chairman of the central bank, according to White House press secretary Robert Gibbs.

Gibbs, speaking to the press Friday, also said that Sarah Raskin, the Maryland Commissioner of Financial Regulation, and Peter Diamond, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, are under "strong consideration" for two long-standing vacancies on the central bank's seven-member board of governors.

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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Stocks post modest gains

Stocks rose Wednesday, with the Nasdaq ending at its highest level in more than 18 months, on strength in the financial services sector and an upbeat report on wholesale inventories.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 3 points, or less than 0.1%, at 10,567, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 5 points, or 0.5%, to 1,145.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 18 points, or 0.8%, to 2,358. The tech-heavy index closed at its highest level since August 2008. Wednesday marked the 10th anniversary of the Nasdaq's all-time closing high of 5,048.62 at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

Bank stocks advanced on upbeat analyst comments and bullish statements from some executives. Citibank (C, Fortune 500) rose 3.6% after the company priced a $2 billion offering of trust-preferred securities. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) gained nearly 2%.

American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) soared over 10% as investors cheered the insurance giant's recent asset sales. Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) also gained significant ground.
Citi, AIG, Fannie and Freddie: The Not Fab 4

Technology stocks also posted strong gains. The Sox (SOX), an index of semiconductor shares, gained about 2%.

However, traders said volumes have been declining this week as many market participants move to the sidelines amid a lack of market-moving economic reports.

"There are no buyers to get us over the next hump," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. He said the market has stalled, with the S&P 500 struggling to push past its Jan. 19 high of 1,150. "Until that happens, the market is just going to drift."
0:00 /2:35Many missed the markets big bounce

Shares of energy producers weakened as oil prices pared earlier gains. Oil briefly traded above $83 a barrel after the government reported a smaller-than-expected increase in oil supplies and a dip in gasoline inventory but ended 60 cents higher to settle at $82.09 a barrel. Gold prices fell.

Stocks managed slight gains Tuesday, which was the one-year anniversary of what many consider to be the bottom of the bear market.

Looking ahead, investors will turn Thursday to the government's weekly report on initial claims for unemployment benefits. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect claims to have risen last week by 9,000 to 460,000.

The Census Bureau's report on the January trade gap is also due out Thursday.

Economy: The U.S. Commerce Department said wholesale inventories fell 0.2% in January, after a 1% drop the month before, raising expectations that consumer demand is strengthening.

"It's not that inventories are rebuilding, but the declines are waning," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank. "Sooner or later, businesses will have to begin producing more."

Separately, the Labor Department said fewer states reported increases in unemployment in January.

The Treasury Department said the government suffered a record $220.9 billion budget deficit in February, after a shortfall of $42.6 billion in January. It was the 17th consecutive monthly deficit and was slightly smaller than the $221 billion shortfall economists had forecast.

Company news: Shares of Facet Biotech (FACT) surged 66% after Abbott Labs (ABT, Fortune 500) announced plans to acquire the company for $27 a share. Abbott gained about 0.7%.

Airline stocks rallied on growing expectations that 2010 is shaping into a profitable year for the industry. Shares of UAL (UAUA, Fortune 500), holding company for United Airlines, and Continental Airlines (CAL, Fortune 500) surged about 5%.

World markets: European markets posted solid gains, while Asian shares ended the session flat.

China reported a 46% increase in exports during February. The rise was due in part to stronger demand from consumers in the United States and Europe, analysts said.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar slipped versus the euro but rose against the yen and the pound.

The price of oil rose 60 cents to settle at $82.09 after hitting a high of $83.03 earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, the price of gold fell $14.20 to close at $1,108.10 an ounce.

Bonds: The price of the 10-year note fell, pushing up the yield to 3.71%. The government sold $21 billion worth of reopened 10-year notes Wednesday as part of a $74 billion offering of U.S. debt this week.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by two to one on volume of 961 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by just under two to one on volume of 2.2 billion shares.
 

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